The slow pace of Brazilian coffee shipments reinforces the perception of a smaller arabica crop and helps support prices. According to data from Cecafé, exports totaled 3.14 mln bags in August, an 18% decrease compared to the same month last year. Of this volume, 2.88 mln bags were green coffee, representing 92% of the total.
In the first two months of the 2025/26 business season, which began in July, exports totaled 5.89 mln bags, up 22% from the same period in the previous cycle. Of this volume, 5.33 mln bags were green coffee, 4.25 mln of which were arabica and 1.08 mln robusta (conillon/robusta). In terms of share, arabica accounted for 72% of sales, robusta for 18%, and solubles for 9.5%. Compared to July-August 2024, green coffee shipments fell 23%, with a 16% decline for arabica and another of 42% for robusta.
The increase in global robusta production and the more aggressive stance of exporters, especially from Indonesia, reduced the presence of Brazilian conillon/robusta in the international market, explaining the decline in shipments at the beginning of this new business cycle. Strong demand from the domestic industry also increased price differentials and helped limit external performance. Even so, the appreciation of price differentials in Asian origins, during the supply gap until the arrival of the new Vietnamese crop, gives Brazilian robusta greater visibility. However, local competition and the withdrawal of sellers continue to limit its share.
Germany is the main individual destination, while Europe and Asia are expected to absorb greater volume in the coming months. Meanwhile, the United States, traditionally the largest buyer, is reducing its market share for Brazilian coffee due to Trump’s tariff hike. US importers have postponed shipments and suspended new contracts, operating with stockpiles equivalent to approximately two months. At the same time, they are seeking to expand positions in other origins, a movement that triggered the surge in international prices: prices jumped from 270 to over 380 cents/lb. Furthermore, buyers must bear higher price differentials or, if they want Brazilian coffee, pay the 50% tariff, making the origin uncompetitive at the moment.
For Brazilian growers, the impact is initially mitigated by the smaller arabica crop and rising prices in both New York and London. The outlook points to leaner shipments but with higher revenue this season.
