Porto Alegre, August 25th, 2025 – The US market and the CBOT continue to evaluate the 2025 crop and its impact on the start of the harvest in mid-September. As is already statistically evident, the data from Pro Farmer Crop Tour lags behind the USDA’s. The assessment profile and the size of the area involved create these divergences, this year slightly more pronounced in the case of corn given the super productivity signaled by the Department of Agriculture. Well, now we will move into the stage of confirmation, when harvesters will show real yield levels and the numbers become more accurate. Apart from that, regardless of the crop size, whether it is slightly higher or lower, the focus remains on US exports, as domestic demand can be adjusted by the USDA analyst in his projections. Currently, Brazil is “helping” US sales, with high premiums and FOB prices above US levels.
This week’s US agricultural data were undoubtedly driven by the weather. The intense heat has disappeared from the maps for this late summer, and rainfall has diminished. For corn, this has little or no impact due to the crop’s stage, with most already defined and entering maturity, for a harvest beginning in mid-September.
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour assessments lost some of their market influence last week, given the absence of a major weather factor that would require a more detailed assessment, diverging or not from the USDA’s, as in 2024. Last year, late-season cropping events affected regions of the Midwest, creating a scenario for reduced final yields. In 2025, without any divergent weather factors for corn, as soybeans are still being determined, the Pro Farmer figures were more in line with the USDA’s super productivity suggested for corn.
It is important to note that Pro Farmer’s data differs from the USDA’s due to the scope of the survey and its criteria. Last week’s crop tour results indicated some divergences. Average yields hit 182.7 bushels/acre compared to the USDA’s 188.8 bushels/acre. This divergence will be defined with the start of the harvest in mid-September, meaning the harvesters will show the real production of this excellent 2025 crop. However, the final numbers will have seasonal adjustments and will only be confirmed in January.
The question is: if USDA has to cut its productivity and production projections, and there has been nothing to that effect this season, will there be any impact on the market? The divergence between Pro Farmer and USDA is 14 mln tons regarding production, from 425 to 411 mln tons. Considering that 411 mln tons may be the case, it is still a record crop and comfortable for the US market. In the supply and demand scenario, the USDA analyst raised demand projections to skip a huge crop and the impact on inventories. If the crop is not that huge, USDA may cut its demand projection. However, that will only be known for sure in January. Until then, the second confirmation of the season will be whether domestic demand and exports will be in line with the USDA projections or not.
US exports reached 70.50 mln tons and are expected to approach 71 mln with last week’s sales. The new crop started with strong sales, with 2.6 mln tons over the week, but we will need to see the pace of shipments in September. In any case, US corn is once again the cheapest among exporters, given the very high premiums in South America and Ukraine. Therefore, we should expect South America to speed up with the arrival of the US crop until premiums adjust to make Brazil, for example, competitive again in the international market. At this point, major indicators are emerging, such as the resumption of Spanish purchases of US corn, after several years of absence. Perhaps the trade agreement between the United States and Europe is helping, but this also involves restrictions on GMOs, which are severely restricted in Europe for US origin. Could the lower price of US corn offset this variable?
The fact is that, from now on, US exports need to reflect the trajectory of supply and demand, and this becomes the key variable. There is, once again, a request from small ethanol and biodiesel plants in the United States for authorization to increase regional production, as well as a general request to increase the ethanol content of gasoline from 10% to 15% nationwide. These factors can impact demand later, containing the downward pressure on corn on the Chicago Board of Trade beyond USD 3.70/bushel.
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