The world is expected to produce a record crop of 178.7 mln 60-kg bags in the 2025/26 season, according to projections from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This accounts for an increase of 2.46%, or 4.3 mln bags, over the previous season, when 174.4 mln bags were produced. The increase is mainly driven by the recovery of production in Vietnam and Indonesia, besides a record crop in Ethiopia.
The highlight is the growth in robusta production, which is expected to total 81.66 mln bags, an increase of almost 8% compared to the last season, when 75.7 mln bags were reaped. In addition to Vietnam and Indonesia, the growth in the production of canephora (robusta/conillon) in Brazil is also noteworthy. This increase in robusta more than offsets the decline in global arabica production, projected at 97.0 mln bags. The decrease in Brazil and Colombia was partially offset by the arabica production growth in Ethiopia. Overall, global arabica production is expected to fall by 1.7%.
In this scenario, there is a change in the relative share of arabica and robusta in global production. Arabica reduced its share to 54%, compared to 57% last season, while robusta grew to 46%, up from 43% in the previous cycle. This realignment in global supply helps explain the recent behavior of the price curves, both for robusta in London and arabica in New York. The NY/London arbitrage shows a relative appreciation of arabica compared to robusta, a movement that has a direct impact on the strategies of industries and may lead to changes in blends.
Some highlights of the 2025/26 coffee crop
- Brazil: The combined arabica and robusta harvest is projected by USDA with a slight increase of 300 thousand bags, totaling 65.0 mln bags in 2025/26. Robusta should grow by 3.1 mln bags, reaching a record 24.1 mln bags, driven by good rainfall volumes, which favored production, especially in Espírito Santo and Bahia. On the other hand, arabica production should fall 2.8 mln bags to 40.9 mln due to the drought and high temperatures in Minas Gerais and São Paulo, which hindered blossoming and fruit development. The lower supply of arabica should reduce exports and favor a slight recovery of stocks, which should end the 2024/25 season at very low levels.
- Vietnam: Production is expected to reach 31.0 mln 60-kg bags, driven by higher yields attributed to favorable weather. Moreover, high coffee prices have allowed coffee growers to increase investments in fertilizers and other inputs, further contributing to higher productivity. The reaped area is expected to remain largely unchanged, with robusta accounting for approximately 95% of production. Exports are projected at 24.6 mln bags, reflecting the increased supply.
- Colombia: Production is expected to decline by 700,000 bags to 12.5 mln bags due to excessive rainfall and high cloudiness, which affected the blossoming period and reduced yields. Although these conditions have favored the proliferation of rust, the incidence rate has been relatively low due to the wide presence of resistant varieties. Exports are expected to fall by 500,000 bags, projected at 10.7 mln bags, as a result of lower production.
- Indonesia: Production should grow by 550,000 bags, reaching 11.3 mln, with robusta accounting for 9.8 mln bags. Favorable weather conditions in the lowland areas of southern Sumatra and Java, which account for around 75% of the country’s production, have ensured an improvement in production volumes. With this production growth, exports are expected to rise by 400,000 bags, totaling 6.5 mln bags.
- Ethiopia: Production is expected to grow by 900,000 bags, reaching a record 11.6 mln 60-kg bags. This growth, observed over the past three years, has been driven by the replacement of more than half of the cultivated area with higher-yielding varieties. In addition, producers have been encouraged to prune after harvest, which has also contributed to boost yields. Coffee exports are expected to rise by 800,000 bags, reaching 7.8 mln bags, due to a greater supply.
USDA forecasts global surplus of 9.3 mln bags in 2025/26
After revising downward the consumption projection for the 2024/25 season, USDA projects a 1.7% growth in global coffee consumption in 2025/26, reaching 169.4 mln 60-kg bags. It is important to note that even with the expected increase, the volume should still be below the symbolic mark of 170 mln bags expected and not reached last season. Consumption growth should be dispersed among markets, with a small emphasis on the European Union and Brazil. The fact is that consumption growth should be below the increase in global production, estimated at 2.5%. As a result, the USDA projects a global surplus of 9.3 mln bags in 2025/26.
Global coffee exports are expected to grow by 700,000 bags to 122.3 mln bags, with positive performances in Vietnam, Ethiopia, and Indonesia, which more than offset the declines in volumes shipped by Brazil and Colombia. In this scenario, global stocks are expected to grow by 4.9% to 22.8 mln bags. Despite the increase, stocks remain below the levels observed in the 2023/24 season and are still within a tight framework, since the stock-to-consumption ratio remains very low at 13.5%.
