Negotiations have gained a little more intensity in recent weeks, driven by the harvest progress and the increased physical availability of new coffee on the market. However, the more cautious stance of sellers has acted as a counterpoint, limiting the pace of business. Some growers, especially those facing cash needs to cover harvest expenses, participated more actively in the market, which contributed to boosting liquidity.
In general, however, growers are more capitalized, which results in a slower pace of sales. Another point is that growers need to sell fewer bags of coffee to meet their financial needs, which ends up impacting the flow of sales. Added to this is the expectation of a smaller arabica crop, production risks and climate uncertainties in light of the Brazilian winter, factors that reinforce a more restrained stance on the part of sellers.
In this sense, the monthly survey by SAFRAS & Mercado, up to June 11, indicates that 22% of the 2025/26 crop has been sold, which corresponds to a 6% increase over the previous month. The pace of sales is in line with that registered in the same period last year, but still well below the five-year average, which is 31%. This difference reflects a change in the behavior of growers in recent years: until the frost of 2021, Brazilian growers were more aggressive in forward sales.
Arabica sales account for 24% of production, slightly above the 23% registered in the same period last year, but still well below the historical average of 33%. The smaller expected arabica crop in 2025 partly explains the slow pace of negotiations. The fact is that even in the face of the recent decline in prices, growers remain calm, which contributes to the slower pace of business. The sales dynamics should continue to depend on the increased physical availability and weather conditions, especially the arrival of polar air masses. In this sense, growers are expected to maintain a more cautious approach at least until the end of winter, with some possibly extending this behavior until the first blossoming to be observed in September and October. This stance helps to alleviate seasonal pressure with the arrival of new coffee on the market.
In the case of conillon/robusta, after the shock of the significant decline in prices at the beginning of the crop, sellers are taking a step back, and the market is showing relative stability, which is also reflected in a more measured flow of negotiations. For example, conillon type 7/8 in Colatina (ES) fell from BRL 2,000 per 60-kg bag, negotiated in March, to the current BRL 1,300—a decline of BRL 700 per bag.
The share of conillon/robusta in exports is expected to decrease in the 2025/26 crop, given the reduced interest from international buyers. The greater availability of robusta in Asia, with a good crop in Indonesia and expected growth in production in Vietnam, expands the alternatives for buyers and increases competition between origins. In this scenario, the domestic roasted and ground coffee industry should again boost negotiations with conillon/robusta. The slower pace of exports favors domestic supply, reducing purchasing pressure and contributing to falling prices.
Sales of Brazilian conillon/robusta rose to 18% of production, in line with increased physical availability and greater flexibility on the part of sellers. Despite the increase, the volume is still below the 20% registered in the same period last year and far from the average of 27% for the period.
Accelerated sales of the 2024/25 crop reinforce the perception of low stocks at the end of the season in Brazil
The flow of business with coffee from the 2024 crop is advancing timidly, in a typical transition movement between crops, when new coffee, reaped in 2025, begins to gain prominence over the remaining coffee. The fact is that there is very little coffee available for trading from the previous crop. A survey by SAFRAS & Mercado, up to June 11, indicates that 98% of the 2024/25 crop has already been sold by Brazilian growers. This pace is more advanced compared to the same period last year and the five-year average, both at 96%. The accelerated sales reinforce the perception of a limited coffee supply and very low carryover stocks, which helps to alleviate the negative pressure typical of the beginning of the harvest—particularly in the case of arabica.
