As we have already mentioned in previous reports, there has been an improvement in the outlook for Brazil’s coffee crop since the end of December, when the last update was made. At that time, the analysis was strongly influenced by the pessimism caused by problems with the arabica blossoming. The fall of flowers and small pods significantly impacted production estimates.
At the beginning of 2025, with the fruits already forming on the trees, the crop outlook improved, and growers began to show greater optimism about the production result. However, the reduction in rainfall between the end of February and much of March, as well as the potential impacts on graining, once again raised doubts about yield. Now, with the start of the harvest, the expectation prevails of a slightly higher production than indicated by the first signs observed in the post-blossoming period.
Despite the improvement, the outlook is still for a decline in the arabica crop, albeit with a smaller decline. Safras & Mercado revised the number for arabica, now estimated at 40.46 mln bags. Albeit above the slightly over the projection of 38 mln previously, the volume is still well below the one reaped last year, when the arabica output exceeded 45 mln bags. The most significant correction occurred in the south of Minas Gerais.
In comparative terms, this is the lowest production since the 2022/23 season, which was severely impacted by the frost that occurred in Brazil in 2021. The latest arabica crops in the country are below production potential, which has contributed to the deficit in the global coffee supply.
In the case of canephora (conillon/robusta), there was also an upward revision in the crop estimate, reinforcing an already much more optimistic outlook. The renewal of coffee plantations, strong investments stimulated by high prices, and favorable climate are supporting production growth. The updated projection indicates a Brazilian conillon/robusta crop of just over 25 mln bags — an adjustment over the initial estimate of 24 mln, and a significant increase compared to the same period last year, when production was slightly below 21 mln bags due to losses caused by lack of rain and high temperatures during blossoming and graining.
With that, the total Brazilian coffee production in 2025/26 is projected at 65.51 mln bags, down 1% from the previous crop. However, with very different trajectories: arabica should fall 11%, while conillon/robusta should register an increase of 20%. These movements are already reflected in the behavior of price curves, with arabica appreciating over canephora.
This impression still needs to be confirmed by the harvest and processing progress. There is uncertainty about the effect of the last heat wave on grain production, which occurred between February and March, and its impacts should only become more evident in the final phase of processing. In addition, doubts persist about the effects of the long drought associated with temperatures well above average, which affected coffee crops — especially in the regions of São Paulo Sul and Cerrado Mineiro — with emphasis on the impact of excessively high temperatures. The harvest progress should provide clearer answers on these points.
