Porto Alegre, October 3, 2022 – The quarterly report on US stocks, released on September 30 by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), brought a surprise to the market, shaking Chicago. Besides bringing higher-than-expected stocks, USDA also revised the US crop upward. This fact put pressure on CBOT futures contracts and could slightly change the short-term profile of the market. It should be pointed out that it is quite rare that USDA changes the crop size in its quarterly reports.
US production for the 2021/22 season is now estimated at 4.465 billion bushels. The previous number was 4.435 billion bushels. In tons, production is now estimated at 121.5 million tons, up from 120.7 million in the previous estimate.
The planted area had its estimate revised to 87.2 million acres. The reaped area is projected at 86.3 million acres. Average yield is now estimated at 51.7 bushels per acre.
As for stocks, quarterly stocks of soybeans in the United States, on September 1st, totaled 274 million bushels (7.45 million tons). In the same period of 2021, the number was 257 million bushels (6.99 million tons).
The figure was above market expectations of 247 million bushels (6.72 million tons). Out of the total, 63 million bushels are stored with growers. Off-farm stocks totaled 211 million bushels, down 27%.
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