The global flow of coffee shipments cooled down at the beginning of 2025, as expected. Data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) confirm a 13% decline in global exports, which totaled 10.83 mln bags last January, compared to 12.49 mln in the same month of 2024. In the first four months of the 2024/25 business season, which began in October last year, shipments totaled 42.79 mln bags. This accounts for a 4.9% decline compared to the volume shipped between October/23 and January/24. While arabica shipments increased by 12%, reaching 85.7 mln bags, robusta shipments in the same period fell 3%, totaling 50.09 mln bags.
The ICO composite coffee price closed last February quoted on average at 354.32 cents per pound, which corresponds to an increase of 14% over the average in January. The volatility of prices in February stands out, hovering around 10%. The ICO composite reference reached its peak on February 13 at 375 cents. Its lowest point was on the last day of February, at 337.54 cents. This behavior of the price curve all over February reinforces the idea that the market is undergoing an adjustment movement, after excessive highs at the beginning of 2025.
Therefore, it tends to settle down while waiting for news regarding the new crop in Brazil. Now in March, the price has even risen again due to the climate disturbance with a heat wave in Brazil, but the high was below the bullish peak in February, which graphically confirms the slowdown movement of international prices.
