Porto Alegre, April 4, 2024 – The domestic corn market is starting to adopt a “second crop” bias from this week onward. The initial price alignment, already focusing on the initial harvest in May in Mato Grosso, particularly, favors a better movement of business, allowing exporters to resume shipments in the coming few months. The excellent climate in Mato Grosso and Goiás helps producers in deciding whether to speed up sales. On the other hand, there is a completely different situation with Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, states that are on the verge of production losses with the second crop due to the little rain registered in March and high temperatures. The internal market begins to work with these two very different situations.
Port levels have improved a little in April, with the stabilization of external prices, slightly better premiums, and an exchange rate above BRL 5.00/dollar. Premiums in Brazil are still high compared to US corn. So, it is difficult to gain strength in exports without improving premiums. If restrictions on Russian wheat exports worsen from now on, under pressure from Europe, and bring some recovery to wheat prices, perhaps there is some room for corn to gain in either premiums or prices.
However, indications in Brazilian ports remained at BRL 56/57/58 a bag for July/August and September and BRL 59/60 for October onward. These are not prices that please the domestic market. However, business began to occur more intensely with the second crop, with shipments from June onward, starting this week in Mato Grosso and Goiás. The excellent harvest outlook after rain in March, which continues in April, allows producers to start deciding on planting. There were trades in Mato Grosso between BRL 37 and 40 last week, whether for local consumers or exporters, and in Goiás between BRL 46 and 48 for the second crop.
On the other hand, sales stalled between the center-south of Mato Grosso do Sul and a large part of Paraná due to the lack of rain in April and the low result in March. High temperatures have complicated the second crop situation. If the rain does not return quickly, losses will increase. There are already irreversible losses. Some crops with rain will partly recover, while many others planted in late March and early April can be completely lost without rain in the second week of April. So, the sale of second-crop corn last week was BRL 55/56 in PR for deliveries from June to the domestic market, and in Mato Grosso do Sul producers do not feel safe to sell under the current climate condition, except in the north of the state. The conflict at the moment is that the port continues with prices of BRL 57, and the interior of Paraná is putting the second crop at BRL 55. The risk of a more adjusted second crop in the state seems to be already changing the price environment.
At the same time, there is a large sorghum crop whose planting is almost finished. Record areas in Goiás, Minas Gerais, and Bahia should guarantee a new production record. Now, the estimated planted area is 1.89 mln hectares and production at 4.98 mln tons. Sorghum should help to neutralize part of the regional supply cuts in the corn crop.
The trading of second-crop corn, therefore, is starting to gain a little more movement. If the rain returns in MS and PR in the next few days, the situation may improve, however, we must understand that the region is important for supplying the South region. There will be no shortage of corn in the domestic market, but the flow should advance further to states such as Mato Grosso and Goiás to meet demand in the South. Paraguay also faces the same climate problem in the center-north of the country and may also have production cuts in this 2024 second-crop corn.
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